Wishful Thinking

Michael Moore predicts that 37 or more electors who are supposed to vote for Trump will not.  Since 1900, only twelve electors have ever done so, and not more than one in any election.  The most ever (except when their candidate was dead) was 32, and never has it actually changed the result.

But what if it happens?  First, there has to be the question of whether they can actually do that.  It’s up to each state, but 29 states have laws requiring the elector to vote according to the popular vote in that state.  Those laws have never been enforced, but if the count drops below 270, it is likely that all or most will be challenged in court.  If the court rules that votes against state law are ivalid, and but lets them be considered abstentions, then the house must choose the president.

If the court permits all 37 defections to count, and all of them are for Cinton, she becomes president (and impeachment proceedings start the next business day).

If 37 defections are allowed, and two of them are not for Clinton, again the House chooses.

If the House chooses, they must choose from the top three vote counts in the electoral college.  So that will be Trump, Clinton, and no telling who the defectors will choose.  It’s not one vote per Congressman, it’s one per state.  I can’t possibly guess how each state will come to a consensus when I don’t know who the third choice will be.  But I’m 99% sure Clinton will not be the next president.

I almost hope it happens.  It would be extremely unlikely for the third choice to be worse than the other two.  It would really be interesting to see what happens, and the ensuing litigation would resolve some of the current ambiguities.

I find rather disturbing the notion that 37 people whose names are known to fewer than one percent of the voters could by breaking the law, arrange for us to have a president who received none of the popular vote.

One Comment

  1. WGroleau says:

    Only two.  And_six_ balked at voting for Clinton. Hmmm. Going to be an interesting four years. I’m anticipating watching from a safe distance.